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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Wisconsin is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean.
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Wisconsin Republican primary is scheduled to be held on April 2, 2024.
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 30 - November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| 819 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 532 (RV) | ± 4.2 | 40% | 42% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Marquette Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 43% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marquette Law School | October 26–31, 2021 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 13% |
| J.L. Partners/Daily Mail | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12%[lower-alpha 2] |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.8 | 37% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 50% | 1% |
| Marquette Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 53% | 3% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[3] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Tossup | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[7] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[8] | Tossup | January 14, 2024 |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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